The Championship Maths Blog
Weekly F1 race previews and championship maths. Points scenarios, permutations, and what each round can decide.
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Singapore Grand Prix: Antonelli 84 clear as Russell defends second
Max Verstappen won last time out in Malaysia and George Russell finished 20th, so Kimi Antonelli heads to the Singapore Grand Prix 84 points clear. Second place, with 22 points between Russell and Lewis Hamilton, can change hands on Sunday.
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Bahrain in Malaysia Grand Prix: Russell won, but the gap is still 66
George Russell won in Azerbaijan and Kimi Antonelli finished fifth, but the Mercedes gap is still 66 points with eight rounds to run. Here is what Kuala Lumpur can and can’t change.
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Azerbaijan Grand Prix: Can Anyone Stop Kimi Antonelli?
Kimi Antonelli has won three of the last five rounds and arrives in Baku 81 points clear of his own teammate. Nine races remain, and the projection says the gap only grows.
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Spanish Grand Prix: Antonelli's 66-point lead meets Madrid
Kimi Antonelli won at Monza and now leads the championship by 66 points from his own teammate. Round 14 in Madrid opens the run of ten races that decide whether anyone can close it.
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Italian Grand Prix: Antonelli's 59 Points Meet Norris at Monza
Lando Norris has won the last two grands prix and is scoring at almost exactly Kimi Antonelli's rate, but he arrives at Monza still 83 points behind. Round 13 of 23 opens the run-in with Mercedes level at the front and Russell and Hamilton tied for second.
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Dutch Grand Prix: can anyone catch Antonelli's 50-point lead?
Lando Norris won in Hungary and Charles Leclerc is scoring faster than anyone in the field, but Kimi Antonelli takes a 50-point championship lead to Zandvoort with 12 rounds left.
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Antonelli leads, Hamilton charges: 2026 Hungarian Grand Prix
Kimi Antonelli won at Spa to hold a 45-point cushion, but Lewis Hamilton has out-scored the entire field over the last five rounds heading into Budapest.
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Antonelli's lead reaches Spa at 25 points and falling fast
Leclerc won at Silverstone and Russell has a win and two seconds from the last three rounds, yet Kimi Antonelli still carries a 25-point lead into Spa.