Bahrain in Malaysia Grand Prix: Russell won, but the gap is still 66

• Round16 of 23
• Race daySun 4 Oct
• CircuitKuala Lumpur
• Still to run8 rounds

Sixty-six points split the two Mercedes drivers with eight rounds to run. George Russell won in Azerbaijan while Kimi Antonelli finished fifth, his worst result of the last five rounds. Before that, Antonelli won in Italy and then in Spain. The Bahrain in Malaysia Grand Prix takes Formula 1 to Kuala Lumpur, where Russell can cut the gap but can’t close it.

Championship standings

Antonelli has 302 and Russell 236, both in Mercedes silver. Lewis Hamilton is third for Ferrari on 199, 37 behind Russell, with Lando Norris and Charles Leclerc close behind on 186 and 179. Toggle between drivers and constructors for the full table heading into Malaysia:

Hamilton is 103 points off the lead with eight rounds left, so his fights are for second, where Russell is 37 clear, and for third, where Norris is 13 behind him. Max Verstappen is sixth on 163 and Oscar Piastri seventh on 120. After that the order thins fast, and Isack Hadjar leads the rest on 86.

The constructors’ table reads 538 to 378. Mercedes have their cars first and second in the drivers’ standings, and Ferrari have theirs third and fifth. McLaren are third on 306 and Red Bull fourth on 263, with RB a distant fifth on 83.

Recent form

The championship leader also leads the form table. Here is where the main contenders finished in each of the last five races, best recent form first:

Antonelli has 98 points from the window: third, second, two wins and a fifth, and he hasn’t finished outside the top five. Norris is next on 83, built on wins in Hungary and the Netherlands before a 19th in Azerbaijan. Russell’s 82 came the other way round, from seventh in Hungary to the win last time out. Verstappen matches Antonelli with four top-three finishes in five. His only miss is a 22nd in the Netherlands, and he has been on the podium at each of the last three grands prix.

Hamilton doesn’t fit the pattern. He’s third in the championship but sixth in this table with 40 points, with a 22nd in Spain and nothing better than fourth. Leclerc has a 22nd of his own, in Italy, and finished fourth or fifth in the other four.

How the title race has unfolded

The cumulative view shows how Antonelli built the lead across the season. Switch to the momentum view for a three-round rolling scoring rate instead of the running total:

Antonelli is scoring 20 points a race and Russell 17.7. Even with the Azerbaijan win, Russell has scored more slowly than his teammate over the last three rounds, so on the rolling average the gap is growing. Behind them the rates fall away: Norris is on 9 a race after his 19th in Azerbaijan, and Hamilton is on 5.3 after a 22nd in Spain.

If current form holds

Take each driver’s scoring rate over the last five races and run it across the eight rounds left. No streak lasts untouched to the final round, so read this as a what-if, not a forecast:

The projection gives Antonelli 459 and Russell 367. Antonelli’s 98-point window is the best in the table, so on these numbers his lead grows. The bigger changes come further down. Norris rises from fourth to third on 319, Verstappen from sixth to fourth on 278, and Hamilton drops from third to sixth on 263, one point behind Leclerc. Hamilton’s place in the top three rests on points he scored before the last five rounds.

What’s at stake this weekend

A 66-point gap is more than one weekend can swing, so Kuala Lumpur can’t take the championship lead off Antonelli:

To overturn the deficit, Russell has to outscore his teammate by more than eight points a race across the eight rounds left. Over the last three rounds he has scored more slowly than Antonelli. At the front, the only top-three place that can change hands this weekend is third. Norris is 13 behind Hamilton and outscored him 83 to 40 over the last five rounds.

Across the rest of the season, each challenger has a target:

• Russell: more than eight points a race on Antonelli to take the lead by the final round.
• Hamilton: nearly five points a race on Russell to take second, while holding off Norris for third.
• Norris: under two points a race on Hamilton takes third.
• Ferrari: more than 20 points a race on Mercedes to erase the constructors’ gap.

The battles across the grid

The lead is safe this weekend, but most fights further down are much closer. Here they are, tightest first:

Hülkenberg and Ocon are level on 7 points for 15th, and Sainz has 7 as well in 17th. Four points split Gasly and Lindblad for 10th, and five separate Audi and Williams for eighth in the constructors’ table. At the front, Russell’s 37-point margin over Hamilton for second is too big to flip in one weekend. The 13 points between Hamilton and Norris could go in one.

The circuit: Kuala Lumpur

The most recent result in the record here is Verstappen’s win in 2017, so the 2026 cars have no history at this track. They now run active aerodynamics and the Manual Override boost, which makes anything learned here before a loose guide at best.

There are two ways to read what this weekend favours: how 2026’s comparable tracks have played out, and who has won here before.

The record has six winners from 2012 to 2017, and three of them are on this year’s grid: Alonso won for Ferrari in 2012, Hamilton for Mercedes in 2014 and Verstappen for Red Bull in 2017. Red Bull won three of the six and Ferrari two. Neither current Mercedes driver has won here, and Hamilton’s win came in a Mercedes, not the Ferrari he drives now.

Trust form over history. Every result in the record is from before these rules. Antonelli has finished in the top five at each of the last five grands prix, and that’s a better guide than anything won here in the 2010s.

Watch Verstappen. He’s the most recent winner here and has been on the podium at each of the last three grands prix. His 72 points over the last five rounds rank fourth in the form table, even though he’s sixth in the championship on 163.

For the full podium history, pole-to-win conversion and every past result here, see our Malaysian Grand Prix results page.